Beyond the ceasefire: the dawn of a new era between Thailand and Cambodia?

After five days of devastating violence, which left dozens dead and displaced hundreds of thousands of people along the 800 km border, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an ‘immediate and unconditional’ ceasefire starting at midnight yesterday.

Does this historic decision, reached during talks in Malaysia, mark the end of a cycle of hostilities or merely a pause before further unrest?

What are the next steps and what can we really expect from this fragile return to peace?

Implementation of the ceasefire and international monitoring

The ceasefire signed in Putrajaya, brokered by Malaysia and with the direct involvement of the United States and China, is only the prelude to a long series of concrete actions. The military commanders of both countries are due to meet the following day to discuss how to maintain the truce, while a first meeting of the General Border Committee (GBC), a crucial body for the future management of disputes, is scheduled for 4 August 2025 in Cambodia.

Malaysia has offered to send an international team to supervise compliance with the ceasefire on the ground. A monitoring and verification mechanism involving ASEAN and other regional observers is therefore being considered to ensure the effective cessation of hostilities and prevent any provocation.

Resumption of political dialogue and bilateral cooperation

Following the suspension of hostilities, Thailand and Cambodia have committed to re-establishing direct diplomatic channels, particularly at the level of the foreign affairs and defence ministries. The stated priority is to return to bilateral negotiations to address the structural roots of the conflict, including border disputes related to colonial-era boundaries.

Thai officials say that Cambodia has yet to demonstrate sincerity and a willingness to de-escalate the situation.

Gradual return to normal life for local populations

One of the most pressing priorities is to enable displaced persons to return safely to the border areas, allow residents to resume their daily activities and ensure freedom of movement.

The measures call for a halt to all mine laying, a freeze on the deployment of new forces and an end to armed provocations. NGOs and humanitarian agencies stress the need for unhindered access to provide aid and comfort to populations affected by the fighting.

Economic repercussions and international pressure

The ceasefire also has economic implications: under the threat of US trade sanctions, both countries have received clear warnings from Washington and Beijing about the need to quickly defuse the conflict. Stabilisation in the region is a prerequisite for the resumption of key trade talks and the revival of investment, against a backdrop of growing economic rivalries in Southeast Asia.

Cautious optimism in the face of persistent risks

The announcement of the truce has been hailed as a diplomatic victory, but its implementation remains fragile as historical differences, painful memories and mutual mistrust remain strong. Many voices are concerned that tensions will flare up again if demilitarisation is not rigorously enforced and political dialogue breaks down.

The ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia is undoubtedly a turning point and a source of hope for thousands of families living along the border. But true peace will require the consolidation of verification mechanisms, a return to sincere bilateral dialogue on border issues and ongoing monitoring of the commitments made. The emergence of international actors and the weight of economic rivalries add a new dimension to stabilisation efforts. If they are to hope for a peaceful future together, the two peoples must now transform this fragile respite into a new political dynamic, driven by reconciliation and regional cooperation.