Thailand and Cambodia: Respect and Reality of the Peace Treaty - Analysis of Possible Scenario

On October 26, 2025, a historic peace agreement was signed between Thailand and Cambodia at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur. This treaty, under the sponsorship of American President Donald Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, aims to put an end to decades of border tensions, sporadic armed conflicts, and growing mistrust between these two neighboring nations.

Context and Stakes of the Peace Agreement

Since the 1960s, the border between Thailand and Cambodia, especially around the temple of Preah Vihear, has been a zone of recurring conflicts. Each country claims portions of territory, fueling military confrontations, human losses, and regional instability harmful to development. The signing of this agreement thus marked a historic moment of de-escalation: withdrawal of heavy weapons, establishment of an ASEAN observer team tasked with monitoring the ceasefire, cooperation in mine clearance, and the release of prisoners.

Respect for this agreement, however, will depend on a complex sequence of factors internal and external to Thailand.

Scenario 1: Full Respect and Successful Implementation

In this optimistic scenario, Thailand would fully commit to respecting the clauses of the agreement. The Thai government, aware of the economic and geopolitical benefits of lasting peace with Cambodia, would take measures to defuse military tensions, reduce military presence at the borders, and promote enhanced bilateral dialogue. Increased cooperation in tourism, cross-border trade, and infrastructure projects could emerge.

The success of this scenario would also depend on the active role of the international community — notably ASEAN, the United States, and China — to ensure transparency and respect for commitments. A major consequence would be regional stabilization, fostering an environment conducive to foreign investments and economic growth in both countries.

Scenario 2: Conditional Respect and Persistent Tensions

Strict respect for the agreement could be limited by internal political factors in Thailand, where influential nationalist factions remain mistrustful of Cambodia. These groups could pressure the government to adopt a firm, even aggressive posture in managing territorial disputes. Occasional violations of the ceasefire could occur, fueling a moderate escalation of tensions.

In this context, Thailand would respect the broad lines of the agreement but without fully investing in long-term collaboration. International observers would be regularly called upon to intervene, while the ceasefire would become fragile, oscillating between relative calm and sporadic tensions. The economic climate would remain uncertain, slowing the expected benefits of rapprochement.

Scenario 3: Non-Respect and Risk of Resumption of Hostilities

A pessimistic scenario envisages that Thailand either does not respect or quickly abandons the agreement. Several reasons could motivate this: a change of government hostile to the treaty, a rise in exacerbated nationalism, disguised military provocations, or internal political instrumentalization. Non-respect would manifest through non-withdrawal of heavy weapons, refusal to cooperate in ceasefire monitoring, and no effort to defuse border disputes.

This could rekindle a cycle of violence with serious humanitarian consequences, deterioration of diplomatic relations, and instability affecting not only Thailand and Cambodia but also the entire ASEAN region. The already fragile local economy would suffer a heavy negative impact due to investor aversion and a decline in tourism.

Key Factors Influencing Respect for the Agreement

Internal Thai politics: Respect will largely depend on government political directions, political stability, and stance towards nationalism. International diplomatic pressures: The roles of ASEAN, American leaders, and Chinese leaders will be key in exerting pressure to respect the agreement. Bilateral cooperation: Open and constant communication between the two parties is essential to strengthen mutual trust. Military engagement: Visible and verifiable military disengagement will enhance Thailand’s credibility regarding treaty respect. Public opinion: Thai public support for peace and regional collaboration is also a determining factor.

An Uncertain but Promising Path to Peace

The peace treaty signed between Thailand and Cambodia is a major diplomatic advance that could open a new era of cooperation and stability in the region. However, real respect for this agreement by Thailand remains subject to complex internal political issues, international pressures, and the historical dynamic of bilateral relations.

Several scenarios remain possible, ranging from strict respect with successful implementation, to conditional respect marked by tensions, and up to potential non-respect leading to the resumption of hostilities. The outcome will largely depend on Thai political will, the role of the international community, and the evolution of diplomatic and economic bilateral relations.

The world is thus watching this peace attempt with attention and hope, which, if supported and respected, could become a model for resolving border conflicts in Southeast Asia.