Debate & Border crisis between Thailand and Cambodia: Analysis of a complex conflict in the heart of Southeast Asia

On 7 August 2025, a conference organised by the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York brought together renowned experts to analyse the recent violent escalation of the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, as well as its broader regional implications

Moderator Brianna Entwistle introduced the debate by highlighting the long history of border tensions, rooted in unclear colonial demarcations and territorial claims fuelled by historical and political issues

Three speakers with complementary backgrounds each shed light on the many facets of this conflict. Sophal Ear, associate professor and survivor of the Cambodian genocide, shared his expertise on the Cambodian issue, describing the complexity of family rivalries mixed with national politics that have contributed to the recent escalation of tensions. Supalak Ganjanakhundee, journalist and advisor to the Thai House of Representatives' Military Committee, gave first-hand account of the reality of the conflict from the border area, describing the gradual militarisation and fear experienced by local populations forced to evacuate.

Benjamin Zawacki, senior fellow at the Asia Foundation, offered a strategic perspective, discussing ASEAN's diplomatic efforts, Malaysia's key role, and the major geopolitical influences of the United States and China in the search for a ceasefire.

The panel detailed the cycle of escalation that led to five days of intense armed clashes, including air strikes, heavy artillery and armoured vehicles, leaving at least 38 people dead and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians.

The discussion highlighted the fragility of the recently adopted ceasefire, emphasising that its implementation depends largely on the political will of the two states and ASEAN's limited ability to intervene effectively due to its principles of non-interference and consensus.

The debate also exposed the internal political dynamics in each country. In Thailand, the crisis has strengthened the role of the army in governance and weakened the position of the civilian government, already weakened by the suspension of the Prime Minister. In Cambodia, the complexity of relations with China and the United States was discussed, notably through the surprising nomination of Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize by a Cambodian deputy prime minister, symbolising a subtle diplomatic game.

Finally, the speakers emphasised the need for profound reform of ASEAN so that it can better anticipate and manage conflicts between its members. Sophal Ear called for a rapid mediation mechanism with real leverage and for the organisation's secretary general to have greater authority to act in the event of a crisis.

The one-hour-and-two-minute meeting provided a deeper understanding of the geopolitical and humanitarian issues surrounding this major border conflict in Southeast Asia. It serves as a reminder of how history, domestic politics and international interests intertwine to shape regional stability. The Asia Society welcomes this valuable insight, which contributes to a better understanding of the current and future challenges in this crucially strategic region.

Warm thanks to the Asia Society Policy Institute for organising this debate, to Brianna Entwistle for her expert moderation, and to speakers Sophal Ear, Supalak Ganjanakhundee and Benjamin Zawacki for their insightful analysis and commitment to raising global awareness of this crisis.