Cambodia-Thailand: What prospects with Anutin Charnvirakul's rise to power?

The election of Anutin Charnvirakul as Thai Prime Minister, confirmed on February 8, 2026 following an early vote, opens a new chapter in bilateral relations with Cambodia.

Anutin Charnvirakul

Leader of the Bhumjaithai party, he succeeds a period marked by border and political challenges, in a context where Phnom Penh closely watches signals from a government committed to national sovereignty. This change raises questions about possible paths to calm dialogue, despite tensions inherited from previous months.

Context of a key election

The Thai legislative elections of February 7-8, 2026, triggered by a parliamentary dissolution in December 2025, saw Bhumjaithai prevail thanks to a discourse centered on security and national unity. Anutin Charnvirakul, experienced as a former Minister of Interior and Defense, mobilized broad support, particularly in border regions. After the end of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's term in 2025, this vote reflects the aspirations of a population concerned with internal stability and defense of territorial interests.

Economic and social issues coexisted with concerns over the border, where sporadic incidents marked 2025. Beijing, a major economic partner for both nations, is closely following these developments, hoping to preserve regional cooperation through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

State of border relations

Disputes over historic sites such as Preah Vihear and Ta Krabey, legacy of a 1962 ICJ ruling, have seen peaks of tension since May 2025, with limited exchanges and military deployments on both sides. Cambodia has appealed to international bodies like the ICJ and ASEAN for mediation, while Bangkok has strengthened its positions to protect local communities.

Anutin Charnvirakul, previously involved in managing these issues, advocates a firm but responsible approach, conditioning progress on reciprocal gestures. The human and economic impacts—temporary trade disruptions, affected migration flows—underscore the urgency of a return to calm, with estimated losses in the hundreds of millions for cross-border trade.

Prospects for Cambodia

In Phnom Penh, under Hun Manet's leadership, there is hope that this new Thai leadership will foster constructive dialogue to defuse disputes. Expectations include resuming bilateral negotiations, easing measures at border crossings, and increased cooperation on issues like the Mekong, vital for agriculture and energy.

Analysts foresee a phase of observation: possible preventive reinforcements on both sides, but also opportunities for talks under regional auspices. Economically, Cambodia could diversify its trade toward Vietnam and Laos, while preserving tourist and commercial ties with Thailand, which represent a significant share of its GDP.

Key actors and regional influences

Anutin Charnvirakul, head of Bhumjaithai since 2008, combines security expertise and rural roots, with a history of reforms like the legalization of medical cannabis. Hun Manet, militarily trained in France, leads a Cambodia seeking balance between domestic growth and external partnerships.

ASEAN encourages restraint, China promotes stability for its investments, and Westerners observe without direct interference. Multilateral mediation remains a viable path forward.

Horizons for appeasement

In the short term, a period of political consolidation in Thailand could open the door to confidence-building measures: bilateral summits, joint commissions on border demarcation, or humanitarian agreements for affected communities. Cambodia, with its diplomatic experience, is well-positioned to initiate this process, avoiding costly escalation in favor of mutually beneficial cooperation.

In the longer term, Thailand's 2027 elections and potential international judicial decisions could solidify a peaceful status quo. For Phnom Penh, the time calls for serene vigilance, awaiting positive signals from a historic neighbor with whom cultural and economic ties have been seriously shaken.