Cambodia: Central Bank Bets on 3.9% Growth in 2026, Well Above the IMF's Forecast

The National Bank of Cambodia (NBC) has revised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.9 percent, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the more cautious 3.0 percent published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month. The gap between the two institutions reflects the uncertainty weighing on an economy caught between external shocks — energy prices, trade tensions — and domestic fragilities, from the border dispute with Thailand to the crackdown on online scam networks.

Chea Serey, Governor of the National Bank of Cambodia, at the mid-year review meeting, July 27, in Phnom Penh

A slowdown acknowledged, a rebound expected

Meeting on July 27 in Phnom Penh for its mid-year review, NBC Governor Chea Serey laid out a two-stage trajectory: an estimated 3.5 percent expansion in the first half of the year, weighed down by a deteriorating global environment, followed by an expected acceleration to 4.3 percent in the second half, driven by exports of garments, non-garment manufactured goods and agricultural products, along with resilient foreign direct investment inflows. In her view, achieving growth in the 3 to 4 percent range would demonstrate the Cambodian economy's capacity to withstand successive crises.

The governor also acknowledged that tourism, traditionally one of the economy's pillars, has contracted, while construction and real estate remain weak — two sectors already flagged as vulnerabilities by several international institutions.

A striking gap with the IMF

It is precisely the divergence from the IMF that has caught economists' attention. At the conclusion of its Article IV mission, conducted from June 24 to July 8 in Phnom Penh, the Fund lowered its forecast to just 3.0 percent for 2026 — down from the 4.0 percent it had still projected in April at the Spring Meetings in Washington. Mission chief Kenichiro Kashiwase attributed the downgrade to a combination of factors: rising energy prices, persistent trade uncertainty, a weakened tourism sector whose image has been damaged by online scam scandals, and subdued domestic demand.

The Ministry of Economy and Finance publicly pushed back on that reading. Deputy Prime Minister Aun Pornmoniroth reaffirmed the government's confidence in a 4.2 percent growth target during a meeting with the IMF mission, pointing to strong exports and a fiscal support package worth roughly $1.24 billion.

A wide range across institutions

Other lenders and regional bodies fall somewhere between these two extremes:

Institution	2026 Forecast	Date	Context
National Bank of Cambodia	3.9%	July 27, 2026	Mid-year review
IMF (Article IV)	3.0%	July 8, 2026	Consultation mission
IMF (Asia-Pacific Outlook)	4.0%	April 16, 2026	Spring Meetings
Asian Development Bank	4.5%	April 2026	Middle East stabilization scenario
AMRO (ASEAN+3)	4.3%	April 30, 2026	Annual consultation visit
World Bank	4.3%	January 2026	Global Economic Prospects

 These discrepancies stem less from disagreement over the underlying fundamentals — all institutions point to the same headwinds, from oil price shocks to a slowing tourism sector and the partial closure of the Thai border — than from differing assumptions about the scale and duration of those shocks. The ADB, for instance, had conditioned its 4.5 percent forecast in April on the Middle East conflict not escalating further, while AMRO had already flagged "significant downside risks" that could push growth below 3 percent.

Diversification and macroeconomic stability in the background

Chea Serey attributed the economy's relative resilience to the political and macroeconomic stability maintained under the government of Prime Minister Hun Manet, as well as to structural reforms launched under the first phase of the "Pentagonal Strategy," intended to accelerate the country's economic diversification. The IMF, for its part, insists on the need for deeper reforms — improving the business climate, governance, export diversification and energy security — to durably consolidate the growth trajectory beyond short-term support measures.