Border Truce Cambodia–Thailand: Toward a Lasting Peace?

The Thailand and Cambodia signed an immediate cease-fire on December 27, 2025 along their contested border, bringing a provisional end to three weeks of bloody confrontations that left at least 47 dead and nearly a million civilians displaced on both sides.

General Tea Seiha

This fragile agreement, negotiated under the mediation of Malaysia and welcomed by the UN and the European Union, raises hopes for lasting peace while rekindling the shadows of a centuries-old territorial dispute laid down during the French colonial era.

Context of the Border Conflict

The hostilities erupted in early December 2025, reviving a long-standing dispute along an 800-kilometer porous border, dotted with Khmer temples like Preah Vihear, awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962 but still claimed by Bangkok.

Minor incidents — landmines, airspace violations, artillery fire — escalated into intense exchanges involving drones, tanks, and Thai airstrikes, which Phnom Penh accused of dropping dozens of bombs in Banteay Meanchey province. Local media reported the escalation beginning around 7 December 2025, resulting in both civilian and military losses and forcing over 500,000 Cambodians and a similar number of Thai villagers to flee their frontline homes, now ghost zones.

This was not the first crisis: a similar truce in July 2025, facilitated by Donald Trump, collapsed in October after a landmine explosion wounded Thai soldiers. Nationalist rhetoric on both sides, amplified via social media and Thai ultranationalists, fueled tensions while ASEAN struggled to impose its role as regional mediator.

Details of the Truce Agreement

Signed by the Defense Ministers, Tea Seiha for Cambodia and Natthaphon Narkphanit for Thailand, the joint declaration that took effect on 27 December at 12:00 local time (05:00 GMT) calls for an immediate freeze of military positions, a ban on any troop reinforcements or movements, and an end to airspace violations.

Both countries pledged to facilitate the rapid, safe, and dignified return of civilians, to clear mines in affected areas, and to cooperate against transnational cybercrime, which has been linked to illegal Cambodian casinos.

A concrete milestone: after 72 hours of effective ceasefire, Bangkok will release 18 Khmer soldiers detained since July — a Phnom Penh requirement seen as a symbol of mutual good faith. Cambodian forces, according to the official AKP news agency, maintain “heightened vigilance” with no new incidents reported to date.

The Chinese envoy Deng Xijun and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres applauded this “positive step”, hoping it will lead to lasting peace.

Conditions for Lasting Effectiveness

Observers say several conditions must be met for this truce to become a true, enduring ceasefire:

• A clear demarcation of the border via the Joint Border Committee (GBC) to settle gray areas like Chok Chey or Sa Kaeo and avoid local provocations.

• Systematic demining, a legacy of decades of wars; recent explosions remind that these devices continue to kill civilians.

• Regional oversight strengthened by ASEAN and third-party neutrals to prevent violations like the Thai strikes of 26 December.

• Bilateral security cooperation, including trafficking controls (drugs, cyber scams), as confidence-building measures.

A high-level political dialogue involving Hun Manet and his Thai counterpart is crucial to calm heightened nationalism — a lesson from the failed truces of 2025.

Good News and Immediate Hopes

This truce has already brought palpable optimism. Cannons have fallen silent around Poipet and Aranyaprathet, allowing some refugees to imagine returning — a relief for separated families and abandoned harvests. Diplomatic intervention — Trump in July, Malaysia, and China recently — shows that Southeast Asia can overcome divisions and strengthens ASEAN unity amid Sino-American tensions.

Cambodian media hail an “unconditional ceasefire” that opens the door to reconstruction: humanitarian aid is already flowing to the hundreds of thousands of displaced Khmer, with promises from the EU and the United States.

Economically, reopening border posts could revive tourism (Siem Reap–Thailand) and trade, vital for post-Covid Cambodia. In discussions with Marco Rubio, Hun Manet sees this as “a step toward regional stability.” 

Persistent Risks and Challenges

Yet shadows linger:

• Thailand has already protested a mine injuring a soldier after the signing, accusing Phnom Penh of bad faith — a scenario seen in October.

• Without resolving the core issue — sovereignty over resource-rich lands — Thai ultranationalists could sabotage the agreement via elections or media.

• Civilians returning face security risks: mined fields and lack of guarantees, while the Cambodian army remains on high alert.

Cambodian outlets warn of a “fragile truce,” as seen in September when Bangkok demanded a Khmer evacuation from a contested zone. External geopolitical influences (China pro-Cambodia; USA seeking balance) could also complicate matters. If the 72-hour mark passes without the release of prisoners, mistrust may resurface, threatening a wider war with hundreds of thousands in overcrowded camps.

Prospects for 2026

Beyond the immediate, a real peace would require an ambitious roadmap: joint satellite mapping, demilitarized buffer zones, and frontier economic forums to bind the destinies of Khmer and Thai border communities, historically interconnected by kinship and commerce.

Khmer sources unanimously call for good faith. History — from Preah Vihear to this December truce — teaches caution but offers a window: to transform an explosive border into a bridge of prosperity.