Under the barbed wire: Diplomacy, hopes and tensions on the Cambodian border

On 17 September, harrowing videos circulated of the head-on clash between Cambodian civilians, including monks, and Thai forces near Ban Nong Ya Kaew (on the Thai side) and Prey Chan (on the Cambodian side). Tear gas and rubber bullets were fired, resulting in a dramatic toll of 28 casualties, including civilians and monks.

AI Illustration

While Thailand claims that the intervention on its own soil was strictly for the purpose of maintaining order, the interim ASEAN observer team was due to visit the scene in the late afternoon, but was only able to observe the rising tensions from afar and return late in the evening, after the clashes.

From history to contemporary blockades

While this episode echoes the bloody conflict in July that had already claimed 38 lives and caused the exodus of 300,000 inhabitants, the fragile truce reached under international pressure has still not resolved the main issue: an incomplete border demarcation, an inexhaustible source of misunderstandings. While the judgements of the International Court of Justice (1962, 2013) have settled the issue of the Preah Vihear temple, they have never definitively marked out the boundaries around it, leaving the door open to all manner of interpretations of maps and watershed lines.

Data: Sluggish trade and resentment

Since the end of July, bilateral trade figures have plummeted - the annual trend of 690 million dollars has been reduced to virtual paralysis at customs posts, impacting an annual flow of five billion dollars and leading to severe fuel shortages and a total halt to agricultural exports (manioc and rice in particular). Faced with calls for a boycott, Cambodian wholesalers are turning to China, Vietnam and Malaysia, but this is more expensive and consumers are suffering the consequences.

Online debates, for their part, crystallise the tension: on the Cambodian side, anger and national defence dominate; on the Thai side, the rhetoric of victimisation and policing prevails. Rare are the messages that advocate restraint or moderation.

Diplomacy in the breach

In the aftermath of the violence, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet launched a wide-ranging appeal to the international community: Asean, China, the United States, the United Nations - all are urged to support a ceasefire that has become precarious. The slightest spark on the border could quickly set the region ablaze and highlight the need for more responsive de-escalation mechanisms.

The positions are being asserted in a waltz of allegations:

• Phnom Penh accuses Thailand of having crossed the line, violated the truce and injured civilians and monks on Cambodian territory;

• Bangkok insists that its actions comply with international standards and that Cambodia must cease all provocation and respect the legality of its operations.

What are the prospects for calming the region?

A return to reason requires five imperatives:

• A precise and shared chronology of incidents, accessible within 24 hours, under the supervision of ASEAN;

• Selective and targeted closures rather than a total blockade of border crossings, to keep essential goods moving under escort;

• Experimentation with a single corridor reserved for these exchanges, with measurable results in the short term;

• The rapid withdrawal of heavy weapons, followed by joint demining operations to reduce the risk of accidental escalation;

• Sober and factual communication on both sides, avoiding legal and political shortcuts and leaving it to the observer mission to clarify disputed details.

Reading the news differently

Arnaud Darc urges readers to keep a strict separation between the factual, which relates facts, places and dates, and the interpretation, which attempts to unravel the meaning and issues involved. He urges readers to favour media that are careful to distinguish allegations from certainties, to systematically compare official sources that often contradict each other, and to be wary of images recycled without proof of attribution or context.

What to watch out for in the coming days

Among the crucial elements to be monitored: the reality of the withdrawals and demining, the stabilisation or exhaustion of the boycott dynamic, the regularity of the observation reports and whether or not they refer to common facts. The responses to Hun Manet's diplomatic offensives and the effective application of the new ASEAN Surveillance Expansion Agreement, signed on 7 August, will be decisive in transforming this border into a shield rather than a trap.

The border,‘ concludes the author, ’must protect, not enclose. Only concrete, modest and rapid gestures are better than lengthy debates if we are to achieve lasting peace on this highly tense stretch of land.