The Shinawatra dynasty: At the heart of Thai turmoil and border conflict

For more than two decades, the Shinawatra family has been a major political and economic force in Thailand. Descended from the Chinese Hakka minority settled in Chiang Mai, the dynasty rose to prominence with the rise of telecommunications magnate Thaksin Shinawatra, who became Prime Minister in 2001.

Charismatic and divisive, Thaksin symbolises both the modernisation of the country through his social policies and the division with the monarchical and military establishment, which led to his overthrow in a coup in 2006

After years in exile, Thaksin returned in 2023, welcomed by a lenient justice system that quickly released him despite his convictions, in an apparent gesture of appeasement towards the monarchy. However, the family remains the target of relentless judicial harassment: Thaksin is currently facing a very serious charge of lèse-majesté – a crime he was charged with following comments made in 2015 during an interview in Seoul, which could see him face up to 15 years in prison.

His youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, who has been head of government since 2024, has just been suspended from her duties as prime minister by the Constitutional Court for a telephone leak during the border crisis with Cambodia.

This wave of legal proceedings is accompanied by the rapid erosion of their political stronghold: the Shinawatras, once adored in the north and north-east, are facing growing opposition, including within Parliament, while the army is more hostile towards them than ever.

A controversial role in the border conflict with Cambodia

The turmoil does not stop in Bangkok: the resurgence of the deadly border conflict with Cambodia in July 2025 exacerbates polarisation. While the historic friendship between Thaksin and Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister, had long guaranteed a special diplomatic relationship, the leak of a telephone recording put an end to the ‘brotherhood’ between the two clans, propelling the Shinawatra and Hun families to the forefront of the regional stage.

Despite the rhetoric, Thaksin denies any responsibility on the part of his family in triggering the conflict, rejecting the idea of a family feud. He stresses that the crisis has been fuelled by Cambodian nationalism and reaffirms the need for dialogue between states, ruling out any recourse to international mediators, while the Shinawatra government is accused of laxity and conflicts of interest, particularly after Paetongtarn's private call to Hun Sen to ‘stop the hostilities’.

The reality is more venomous: the apparent family rift has crystallised around accusations of hostile acts, orchestrated leaks and communication coups. Old ties – golf, economic advice, scandalous friendships – have not withstood the rise of national interests, with each side exploiting the other to consolidate its position against its own opponents. Recent events have been seen as either the final episode in a ‘family feud’ or an example of states trapped by the weight of their misguided alliances.

The Thaksin Shinawatra family remains at the crossroads of Thailand's crises: fallen millionaires and catalysts for democratic reform for some, threats to the deep state for others. More contested than ever, shaken by the army, the justice system and the streets, and surrounded by controversy over their handling of the border war, they now face the most serious challenge to their power in 25 years – a power that is now as fragile as the truce hanging over the Cambodian border.