Peace Agreement Cambodia-Thailand: Beijing's Calculated "Silence"

China did not intervene directly in the recent peace agreement between Cambodia and Thailand, and this stance is explained by a complex analysis mixing cautious diplomacy, strategic interests, and respect for regional dynamics.

Xi Jinping

Several reliable sources reveal that Beijing chose a behind-the-scenes role, preferring to support regional mediations rather than impose itself as a direct arbitrator, despite its already strong and growing influence in Southeast Asia.

Diplomatic caution and respect for ASEAN

China has always displayed an official position of objectivity and impartiality in the border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. From the first clashes, Beijing called on both parties for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and restraint, while allowing the ASEAN) to play the main role in mediation.

According to Wang Yi, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, China actively supports the ASEAN and encourages the organization to take the leadership in resolving the conflict. This strategy prevents China from appearing as a hegemonic actor imposing its will, which could fuel criticism and suspicion from neighboring countries and the international community.

The official reaction from Beijing after the ceasefire agreement between Cambodia and Thailand was marked by a measured and constructive tone. China praised this agreement as a positive advancement for regional stability and expressed its willingness to continue supporting both countries in their peaceful resolution of the border dispute.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, through Vice Minister Sun Weidong, stated that exchanges with Cambodian and Thai leaders took place in a "frank, friendly, and warm" atmosphere. Beijing reaffirmed its commitment to play a constructive role to encourage peace and cooperation, without being directly involved in official mediation, which was mainly carried by the ASEAN, Malaysia, and the United States.

This positioning reflects China's policy of discreet and non-interventionist support, favoring regional dialogue and balanced bilateral relations with both countries.

China thus avoided appearing as a hegemonic actor in this sensitive case, while showing its ability to encourage stability in its immediate neighborhood.

This diplomatic stance fits into Beijing's broader strategy to consolidate its influence in Southeast Asia through regional cooperation and respect for multilateral mechanisms like the ASEAN.

Geostrategic interests and regional balance

The absence of direct intervention by Beijing is also explained by the delicate nature of its relations with both countries. China maintains a close alliance with Cambodia, which grants it military and geostrategic advantages in the region. However, Thailand is also an important economic partner and a key player in regional security.

An overly marked direct involvement by China would therefore risk destabilizing its bilateral relations and provoke political and economic repercussions. Moreover, Beijing wants to preserve regional stability amid its strategic rivalries with the United States and avoid the conflict worsening, which could also compromise its regional integration projects, such as the “Belt and Road” initiative.

A discreet role behind the scenes

Despite this reserve, China proposed its assistance through trilateral discussions with the ASEAN and the foreign ministers of Cambodia and Thailand. It encouraged the reopening of border points, cooperation for demining, and the repression of cross-border crimes such as counterfeiting and cybercrime that affect the region.

These initiatives reflect Beijing's willingness to contribute to regional stability constructively yet subtly, without imposing itself as the main mediator or risking an embarrassing failure.

American leadership at the forefront

Finally, it is notable that the final peace agreement was signed in the presence of US President Donald Trump, who played a publicly recognized mediation role. American sources claim that Beijing had a limited or even no role in the final truce negotiations, leaving the United States to take this leading role.

China’s stance also reflects Sino-American diplomatic competition in Southeast Asia, where China sometimes prefers to avoid direct confrontations on sensitive issues to prevent a diplomatic or military arms race.

The direct non-intervention by China in the peace agreement between Cambodia and Thailand stems from a diplomacy that wishes to appear balanced, respectful of regional mechanisms, cautious regarding conflicting strategic interests, yet still present in discreet support of peace, leaving the public mediator role to other influential actors, notably the United States.

This position thus illustrates the complexity of international relations in Southeast Asia, where Beijing cultivates growing influence while remaining careful not to destabilize the fragile regional balance.