Paris-Phnom Penh: the economic bet behind a diplomatic rapprochement

Two months before the 20th Francophonie Summit and a state visit by Emmanuel Macron, Paris and Phnom Penh are picking up the pace. Trade rose 17.5% in 2025 and three infrastructure projects were selected in July. France's weight in the kingdom nonetheless remains small next to China's.

H.E. Tith Seychanly, Director General of the Directorate-General of Trade Policy and Promotion, and Mr. Julien Bert, Vice President of CCIFC, signed the MOU in the presence of H.E. Mrs. Cham Nimul, Minister of Commerce. The agreement defines the roles and responsibilities of both parties in coordinating preparations, business participation and programme development

On 3 September in Phnom Penh, Cambodian Minister of Commerce Cham Nimul presided over the signing of a memorandum of understanding between her ministry and the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Cambodia (CCIFC). It covers the organisation of the third France-Cambodia Business Forum, on 16 and 17 November. The date was picked with care. The forum opens on the last day of the Francophonie Summit, scheduled for 15 and 16 November in the capital, and should coincide with Emmanuel Macron's state visit.

Nicolas Forissier, France's Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade, confirmed in July that the president would attend the summit. Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn said on 14 July that the kingdom would be "honoured" to receive him at the end of the year. The forum's organisers are more cautious: they speak of a participation "being confirmed" and announce the presence of Hun Manet and his government.

French exports take off, and so does the deficit

According to the French Treasury's Directorate-General, bilateral trade reached €1.75 billion in 2025, up 17.5% on 2024. French exports rose 51.1% to €189 million. Aeronautics accounts for a third of that, at €62.3 million. Agrifood follows at €54.3 million, including €15.7 million of wine, a segment where France is the country's leading supplier. Cosmetics gained 51%.

The imbalance remains huge. French imports from Cambodia grew 14.4% to €1.56 billion: €1.1 billion of clothing, €290 million of leather goods and footwear, €95.6 million of rice. The French deficit widened from €1.24 billion to €1.37 billion.

	2023	2024	2025
Total trade	€1.36bn (-5.3%)	€1.48bn (+8.7%)	€1.75bn (+17.5%)
French exports	≈ €170m (+31%)	€125m (-26.7%)	€189m (+51.1%)
Imports from Cambodia	≈ €1.20bn	€1.36bn (+13.8%)	€1.56bn (+14.4%)
French deficit	€1.02bn	€1.24bn	€1.37bn
Stock of French FDI at year end	€561m (1.3% of total)	€692m (1.52%)	n/a

Over three years the pattern is clear. Textile imports grow by 12% to 15% a year. French exports, for their part, hinge on a single line. The Treasury credits the €64 million increase recorded in 2025 to the aeronautics sector, which alone weighs €62.3 million. Excluding aircraft, French sales stay around €125 million to €130 million, the 2024 level. That year's drop was already down to two items, pharmaceuticals and foundry products.

Early 2026 confirms the fragility. In the first quarter, trade fell 3.4% to €357 million, with a deficit close to €300 million. Exports rose 6% to €28.3 million. An accounting detail weighs on these figures: the two ATR 72-600s delivered to Cambodia Airways were bought by a Singapore-based leasing company, which leases them to the Cambodian carrier. The sale is therefore recorded as an export to Singapore. The statistics understate real trade by that much.

On investment, the stock of French FDI in Cambodia stood at €692 million at the end of 2024, or 1.52% of the total. China alone accounts for close to 40% of foreign investment in the country. The Treasury points out that France remains "the leading Western economic player", with more than 300 entrepreneurs established, mostly in hotels and restaurants but also in energy, health, finance and construction.

Three and a half years of visits

The rapprochement began with Hun Sen's visit to Paris in December 2022. King Norodom Sihamoni followed in November 2023. Hun Manet, prime minister since August 2023, chose France for his first major bilateral visit to Europe, on 18 January 2024. Seven memoranda of understanding were signed in energy, infrastructure and retail. The same day, the French Development Agency (AFD) committed €215 million to drinking water, energy and vocational training, doubling its annual commitments.

Hun Manet and Emmanuel Macron met again in Nice in June 2025, on the sidelines of the United Nations Ocean Conference, then at the Élysée on 8 April this year, during the One Health Summit. In between, bilateral political consultations held in Phnom Penh on 18 December set the goal of a "strategic partnership" to be concluded in 2026.

Nicolas Forissier's visit on 9 and 10 July put content behind the words. The minister met Aun Pornmoniroth, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, as well as the ministers of Commerce, of Mines and Energy, and of Health. Three projects were selected: a Cambodia-France university hospital, a waste-to-energy plant and a pumped hydro energy storage facility. The Cambodian statement speaks of a change of method, with less traditional public aid and more infrastructure partnerships open to the private sector.

AFD, the backbone of the French presence

Development aid remains the main channel of the relationship. Present since 1993, AFD has committed more than €1.5 billion in the country. It was targeting around €600 million in cumulative commitments over 2024-2026. In December 2024, €183 million was signed, including €92 million for the third phase of the Bakheng water plant, with a European Union grant under Global Gateway.

Bakheng sums up the method. The plant was built by Vinci Construction Grands Projets, which had already delivered those of Niroth and Chamcar Mon, and financed by AFD and the European Investment Bank. The $156 million contract signed in 2019 was the largest the group had ever won in drinking water. The Phnom Penh Water Supply Authority is now cited as a model in the region.

That model has an expiry date. Cambodia is due to leave the least developed country category in 2029. It will lose part of its preferential access to the European and American markets and see concessional aid shrink. The subject was on the agenda of the December consultations.

Phnom Penh looks to diversify

For the Cambodian government, France is first of all a way to reduce dependence. Washington maintains 19% tariffs on Cambodian goods, while the United States still absorbs 41% of the country's exports. The conflict with Thailand closed the land border and sent close to a million migrant workers home in 2025, according to Coface. The French Treasury expects growth to slow to 4% in 2026, against 4.9% for AMRO, with inflation near 3%.

Thomas Lam, chairman of the France-Cambodia friendship group at the French National Assembly, on mission in Phnom Penh in February, listed the sectors where Paris wants to push its companies: agro-industry, logistics, automotive and electronics assembly, private hospitals, tourism, digital banking.

Confluences: "rarely been so busy"

On the ground, Confluences, a firm specialising in access to the Cambodian market, sees demand rising. Its founder Soreasmey Ke Bin, based in the country since 2001, replied in March to an editorial in Gavroche asking whether Cambodia was "bankrupt". He lined up the figures: more than $65 billion in trade in 2025, up 18%, exports above $30 billion, 575 investment projects approved by the Council for the Development of Cambodia, 66% more than in 2024. He concedes that tourism is below its potential, that real estate is correcting and that the country's image has been damaged by online scam centres. But his market access teams, he writes, have "rarely been so much in demand", and he expects an acceleration with the summit.

The report Confluences Capital published the same month is more measured. It describes a "pivot" in the Cambodian economy, from growth driven by property speculation and private debt to a more selective industrial phase, and takes up the international institutions' projections: 4.8% growth in 2025, 4.3% in 2026. For a French company, that means longer cycles and less easy money.

EuroCham pushes on regulation

French companies also lean on the European chamber. EuroCham Cambodia, created in 2011 by the French, German and British business associations, has more than 450 members and carries the dialogue with the government on behalf of all Europeans. On 19 May, its chairperson Tassilo Brinzer handed Aun Pornmoniroth the White Book 2027, co-financed by the European Union and Germany's development ministry. The document contains eighteen new recommendations, on digital assets, pharmaceutical regulation, renewable energy and automotive policy. EU Ambassador Igor Driesmans sees it as a roadmap aligned with the government's Pentagonal Strategy and cited three results of the ongoing dialogue: a clarified definition of new vehicles, progress toward internationally recognised renewable energy certificates, and the end of "open-lid" beer promotions.

Aun Pornmoniroth, who announced on that occasion growth of 5.3% for 2025, listed six shared priorities: the digital economy and a personal data protection law, competition law, a national single window for trade, renewable energy certificates, human capital, regulatory transparency. The Europeans' message does not change from one edition to the next: without a predictable framework, quality investment will stay scarce, and LDC graduation makes the question more pressing.

EuroCham is also communicating widely, and usefully, on the November fortnight. Its roadmap published in July lists everything that will orbit the summit: a cashew nut and pepper trade forum from 10 to 12, the Parliamentary Assembly of La Francophonie on 14, the sixth Rencontre des Entrepreneurs Francophones from 14 to 16, hosted by Kith Meng's Cambodia Chamber of Commerce and billed for more than 3,000 business leaders, a mission by the Walloon export agency AWEX on 16, the France-Cambodia forum on 16 and 17, and the Study in Europe fair on 18.

Health, heritage, universities

In health, the Institut Pasteur du Cambodge and the University of Health Sciences form the base of a research cooperation coordinated by ANRS on HIV, hepatitis, tuberculosis and arboviruses. The future university hospital will be added to it.

In heritage, the Guimet Museum and the Cambodian Ministry of Culture are steering a feasibility study to restore and extend the National Museum in Phnom Penh. France is funding, with UNESCO and ALIPH, the restoration programme for the Preah Vihear temple, made urgent by the 2025 fighting with Thailand. The École française d'Extrême-Orient continues its work at Angkor and on the dancing Shiva of Koh Ker.

In higher education, Paris-Panthéon-Assas opened a bachelor's degree in Phnom Penh this year. More than 22,000 Cambodian pupils learn French. The summit will come with a Francophonie Village and the FrancoTech Innovation competition, open to candidates from 90 countries.

What is still missing

November will give France a visibility it has not had in the country for decades. Whether 300 entrepreneurs and a handful of large groups are enough to weigh against Chinese, Japanese and Korean capital remains to be seen. The three projects selected in July have no published timetable or financing. The strategic partnership promised for 2026 is not signed.