top of page
Ancre 1

Economy & Diplomacy: China’s strategic gains from USAID’s closure in Cambodia

Writer's picture: Christophe GargiuloChristophe Gargiulo

More than just an economic setback, USAID's (definitive ?) closure would mark a shift in geopolitics.

President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk are attempting to tear down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which has been a pillar of American international humanitarian efforts since 1961. The agency is currently at the focus of a political tempest.

President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk are attempting to tear down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk are attempting to tear down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)
“We're going to shut it down. Trump agreed when I asked him a couple times,” says Musk

Musk also affirms the organization is rife with "corruption and waste," claiming that just 10% of its funding actually reach the people they are meant to help. However, there is no official evidence to back up this allegation. Conflicts with agency security officials who were put on leave for refusing have resulted from his DOGE team's forced access to USAID's secure systems.

Cambodia, which has depended on U.S. assistance for many years, has then been rocked by the Trump administration's sudden closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Analysts contend that China stands to gain substantial geopolitical and economic leverage in a nation that is becoming more and more aligned with Beijing's objectives, as projects come to a standstill and NGOs search for alternatives. Here are some ways that USAID's absence could change Cambodia's future and shift the balance of power in the region.

Increasing the geopolitical influence of China

With its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is already Cambodia's biggest development partner and is well-positioned to cover important gaps created by USAID's withdrawal. As a result of America's own bombing during the Vietnam War, the United States had been a major contributor to Cambodia's demining efforts, providing $10 million a year to remove landmines.

Eight provinces, including Kampong Cham and Mondulkiri, have suspended operations, putting Cambodia's 2030 mine-free target in peril
Eight provinces, including Kampong Cham and Mondulkiri, have suspended operations, putting Cambodia's 2030 mine-free target in peril

Soft Power

Beyond infrastructure, USAID's initiatives in Cambodia supported human rights, media freedom, and principles of democracy. To train journalists and conduct investigations, groups such as the Cambodian Journalists Alliance Association (CamboJa) depended on U.S. financing. China's state-sponsored media alliances may get more familiar with Cambodia's information environment if these programs are halted.

Economic dependency and resource access

Cambodia is susceptible to changes in donor dynamics because of its reliance on international aid. In October 2024, the United States committed $55 million for civil society, agriculture, and healthcare; the money has since been blocked. China, which is currently Cambodia's largest investor, might take advantage of this gap by linking aid to access to resources. For instance:

  • Agriculture: The rice and rubber industries in Cambodia are of interest to Chinese companies, as they are vital to China's food security

  • Minerals: China's electronics supply chains may benefit from rare earth mines in Mondulkiri

Despite their outward caution about the effects of U.S. aid cuts, Cambodian officials are likely looking for other partners. Pen Bona, a government spokesman, acknowledged that the freeze has an impact on sectors like demining but maintained that Cambodia's 2050 development targets are unaffected.

However, while Cambodia’s government claims the freeze won’t derail its 2050 high-income goals, officials acknowledge the need for continued demining support and express hope for U.S. cooperation

Overcoming U.S influence

The closing of USAID erodes US soft power in an area dominated by China. Noting that Russian officials publicly praised USAID's demolition, former USAID official Jeremy Konyndyk cautioned that competitors like China and Russia will take advantage of the void.

Democrats in Congress have presented the shutdown as a “gift to China,” claiming that USAID’s efforts to promote goodwill through health and education initiatives resisted Beijing’s influence. The withdrawal of USAID may strengthen Cambodia's ties to China.

The development of Cambodia

However, some finance deficits might be compensated for by China's involvement. For example:

Demining: USAID emphasized high-risk communities, whereas Chinese efforts concentrated on commercially important terrain

In order to remove landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO), the United States has supported 93 teams and more than 1,000 workers with demining efforts, contributing around $10 million a year. Operations in eight provinces, including Kampong Cham and Mondolkiri, have already ceased due to the financing restriction, postponing Cambodia's objective of being mine-free by 2030. Even when other nations like China and Japan offer assistance, the abrupt end of U.S. financing puts communities at danger and slows down rural development.

Healthcare: The focus that USAID places on HIV/AIDS and TB, which impact millions of Cambodians, is absent from Chinese funding.

Civil society in Cambodia is also concerned about a "domino effect." ADHOC rights group Ny Sokha issued a warning, stating that 70% of their services, including legal aid for victims of human trafficking, are currently suspended. Grassroots advocacy should find other sources of finance if the United States does not support it.

Programs for youth empowerment, such as those pertaining to civic rights and digital literacy, are in jeopardy. Financial instability and layoffs are commonplace for small enterprises that depend on USAID subsidies for these initiatives.

Trump's demise of DEIA (diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility) policies may deprioritize LGBTQ+ rights and gender equality initiatives, undermining advancements in underserved groups.

"Dissolving USAID is like handing China a golden ticket to rewrite the rules of global influence," Senator Chris Murphy said bluntly.

A changing landscape

More than just a budgetary cut, USAID's closure marks a shift in geopolitics. China's dominance in Cambodia highlights a larger pattern: authoritarian methods are becoming more popular as democratic coalitions erode. The loss of US assistance runs the risk of strengthening Cambodia's reliance on Beijing, which might have long-term repercussions for the country's sovereignty and regional stability, despite Phnom Penh's insistence that it can handle the issue.



Kommentare

Mit 0 von 5 Sternen bewertet.
Noch keine Ratings

Rating hinzufügen
  • Télégramme
  • Youtube
  • Instagram
  • Facebook Social Icône
  • X
  • LinkedIn Social Icône
bottom of page