Could France’s Crisis Disrupt the Francophonie Summit in Phnom Penh?
The 20th Francophonie Summit opens in twenty-eight days. In France, the streets flared again on Saturday and the Limoges town hall burned, the budget has no majority and the presidential election is coming. The summit will go ahead. Emmanuel Macron’s attendance depends on a Paris calendar that nobody controls.
17 October
On Saturday, France saw another day of anger. In Limoges, the town hall caught fire after a group broke in. In Marseille, a municipal police post was ransacked. In Bordeaux, demonstrators threw smoke flares at gendarmes. In Paris, police used water cannon. L’Express adds town halls attacked in Lille and Marseille, squares damaged in Paris and Bordeaux, and the premises of Europe 1 and CNews vandalised. No official toll had been published by Sunday morning.
On Friday, speaking from Brussels, Emmanuel Macron had recalled that the right to demonstrate comes with respect for people and property. Marine Le Pen asked the French to “hold on a few months”. Jean-Luc Mélenchon said calm returns wherever police are absent. For Frédéric Dabi of Ifop, young people now see politics as a problem, no longer as a solution.
From the classrooms to the streets
It all started in the high schools. Students are asking for more teachers, buildings in working order and a reform of Parcoursup, the university admissions platform. On 6 October, the third major day of mobilisation drew 266,000 people, according to Public Sénat. Then policing took over the story. By 6 October at least 215 students had been injured, LCP reported. The day before, in Lens, a 15-year-old boy had his hand torn off by a grenade. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez told MPs of 6,629 arrests, suspended the use of stun grenades and refused to resign. The IGPN, the police oversight body, opened eighteen inquiries.
On the 7th, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu addressed the country from Matignon. He promised lower fuel prices, stable electricity bills this winter and an emergency plan for farmers hit by the heatwave. For the students, nothing before the end of October. He is sticking to a deficit target of 5% of GDP in 2027, after 5.4% this year. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that widening the deficit to cushion energy prices was no longer sustainable. In a Le Figaro poll, 63% of the French consider the movement justified.
A budget without a majority
The finance bill has been debated in the Assembly since 13 October. The social security bill, tabled on the 6th, must be examined within fifty days at most. After 25 November, the government can legislate by ordinance, Ifrap points out.
Sébastien Lecornu has no majority. He needs the Socialists or the National Rally to abstain to escape a no-confidence vote. Laurent Panifous, the minister for relations with Parliament, admitted in late September that a vote would be “very difficult”, without ruling out the 49.3 procedure. La France Insoumise has promised a censure motion if it is used. Last year, the budget was only adopted on 2 February, through 49.3.
On the left, the 11 October primary gave Raphaël Glucksmann 66.17%, far ahead of Olivier Faure. Franceinfo notes that each candidate is now playing their own tune, which does not make the government’s task easier. On 24 September, Emmanuel Macron ruled out any dissolution before the presidential election, whose first round takes place on 18 April 2027.
Phnom Penh gets ready
The summit will take place on 15 and 16 November, after the Ministerial Conference opens on the 14th. Its theme is “Reinvest in Peace for Shared Prosperity and Lasting Stability”. Nearly 20,000 officers are mobilised for security. The contrast is hard to ignore: a summit held under the banner of peace and stability opens while France, which backed Cambodia’s bid, is dealing with riots and political instability.
On the Cambodian side, the National Francophonie Commission, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn, met for the seventh time on 21 September. Less than two months remained, he noted, and the sub-commissions were progressing steadily. Four days later in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, he met Louise Mushikiwabo, who welcomed the progress made, according to the AKP agency. France is providing technical support.
Two events accompany the official proceedings. The Francophonie Village will occupy Wat Botum Park from 13 to 17 November. FrancoTech will run from 14 to 16 November at Koh Pich: more than 5,000 participants and 110 booths are expected, and the economic forum is due to bring together over 3,000 business leaders. On security, the authorities announce AI-enabled cameras and anti-drone systems.
Ninety states and governments are invited. The French-Cambodian Chamber of Commerce (CCIFC) hopes for 40 to 45 heads of state and government. Emmanuel Macron is among them, and is due to follow the summit with a state visit. He confirmed his trip to Hun Manet on 8 April in Lyon. FrancoTech is due to open on the 14th in his presence. The last visit by a French president to Cambodia dates from 1993, Ambassador Olivier Richard points out; before that, one has to go back to de Gaulle in 1966. Phnom Penh hopes for a strategic partnership.
It is also an elective summit. On 16 November, behind closed doors, the heads of state and government of the 53 full members will choose the Secretary-General. Four candidates: Louise Mushikiwabo, who is seeking a third term, Coumba Bâ, Dacian Cioloș and Juliana Amato Lumumba. They were heard in Paris in late June, a first for the OIF.
What could really move
The summit does not depend on France. Cambodia and the OIF are organising it, and no French government can postpone it. Nothing points to a postponement. The Cambodian agency AKP, for its part, presents the event as a demonstration of the kingdom’s ability to host a gathering of this size. The Djerba summit was pushed back a year, but it took a pandemic; it was held in November 2022. The risks specific to the summit lie elsewhere, on the Thai border, where deadly fighting took place in July and December 2025. Displaced families have still not been able to return to their villages. Louise Mushikiwabo visited them during a preparatory mission. In the French community in Cambodia, optimism remains the mood: a Francophonie Village is also being held in Siem Reap in early November.
That leaves Emmanuel Macron. A censure vote brings down a government, not a president, and nothing prevents him from travelling. But Phnom Penh is nearly 10,000 kilometres from Paris, with a six-hour time difference. The head of state could be there while the executive chooses between 49.3 and ordinances, and while the street erupts again. The most likely outcome, at this stage, is that the trip goes ahead as planned: preparing it fully occupies the embassy, the ambassador says, and the bilateral agenda is set. A shortened visit, or a delegation led by someone else, would go down badly in a country that has been preparing the event for months. To our knowledge, the Élysée had announced no change as of 18 October.
One last point, more diffuse. The election of the Secretary-General will be played out without a prior consensus. France hosts the OIF and carries weight in the corridors. A president absorbed by the crisis, or absent, would carry less. That is our own hypothesis: none of the sources consulted puts it forward.
The dates
End of October: the government’s first decisions for the students. 26 October: end of the Assembly’s twenty days on the social security budget. Early November: Francophonie Village in Siem Reap. 13 November: opening of the Francophonie Village. 14 November: opening of FrancoTech and the Ministerial Conference. 15 and 16 November: summit. 17 November: end of the Village. 25 November: start of the window for ordinances on the social security budget.
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