Cambodia's Trade Surges 17% to $17 Billion in Q1 2026 Amid Pre-Crisis Boom

Cambodia's foreign trade surged to nearly $17 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 17.2% increase from the previous year, according to the General Department of Customs and Excise.

These figures, dating from before the war in Iran and the global energy crisis that followed in late February–March 2026, illustrate an early robust dynamic. This performance, boosted by dynamic exports and imports, confirms the resilience of the Khmer economy in the face of geopolitical tensions.

Record Exports and Imports Drive Expansion

Exports climbed 17.7% to $8.10 billion, compared to $6.88 billion in Q1 2025, while imports rose 16.7% to $8.84 billion (versus $7.57 billion a year earlier). This positive balance reduces the trade deficit to $740 million, against more than $1 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2025, according to official data from the Ministry of Commerce.

This growth fits into an upward trajectory: in 2025, Cambodia had already recorded a 12.4% increase in total trade, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and regional trade agreements like the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), according to the BNC's annual report.

China Leads, Followed by the US and Vietnam

China dominates by far, with a trade volume exceeding $5.15 billion, representing more than 30% of the total. Next come the United States ($3.48 billion), Vietnam ($2.26 billion), Thailand ($796 million), and Japan ($750 million).

Exports to the United States, mainly clothing and footwear, jumped 22%, thanks to the bilateral free trade agreement and customs exemptions, as indicated in the Ministry of Commerce's Q1 2026 report. Shipments to China of agricultural products (rice, rubber) and textiles rose 19%, supported by ACFTA preferential quotas.

Key Sectors Fueling the Dynamism

Textiles and garments, pillars of the Cambodian economy, account for 70% of exports ($5.7 billion in Q1), up 20%. Agri-food (rice, fruits) and electronics are emerging, with electronic exports to Japan and Thailand growing 15%.

On the imports side, raw materials (cotton, fertilizers) and machinery from China and Vietnam fuel this industrial vitality. The BNC forecasts a continuation of this trend, with GDP expected to rise 4.3% in 2026 according to the World Bank (versus 6.1–6.2% according to the ADB), boosted by these trade flows.

Impact of the Iran War and Energy Crisis

The war in Iran, triggered in late February 2026 by Israeli and American strikes, sparked a regional energy crisis: fuel prices in Cambodia surged 10–15% in March–April 2026, from 3,850 to 4,400 riels per liter of regular gasoline. The oil bill, already at $1.68 billion in 2025, could climb 20% in 2026 if the conflict persists. Cambodia, a net importer of 3 million tons annually via Sihanoukville, relies 80% on Chinese and Vietnamese deliveries, now disrupted by export restrictions.

This cost inflation penalizes transport (20% of GDP), tourism, and textiles, but the strong pre-crisis growth (17.2%) provides room for maneuver. The BNC predicts a slowdown in Q2 2026, with exports potentially at –5% and GDP at +4–5%, offset by increased energy investments.

Optimistic Outlook but Requiring Vigilance

Despite US tariff uncertainties, regional competition, and now the Iran war and energy crisis, Cambodia remains moderately optimistic, thanks to its low hydrocarbon dependence and Asian diversification.

The war has accelerated the transition to renewables (70% hydro-solar target by 2030).

Chinese investments in special economic zones (Sihanoukville) and strengthened WTO adherence support this trajectory. "Even in a context of shocks, Cambodian competitiveness remains supported by pre-crisis robustness," notes a recent Ministry of Commerce report. For Q2 2026, analysts forecast growth at +4–5%, with a rebound to +5.1% in 2027 if peace returns.