Cambodian exports surpass 14 billion dollars: resilience under constraint

During the first five months of 2026, Cambodia’s foreign trade recorded a 19% increase, driven by U.S. demand and the impact of regional free trade agreements. This performance is all the more remarkable as the national economy simultaneously absorbs an oil shock, a real estate crisis, and a decline in remittances from Thailand.

Phnom Penh @CG

The figures speak for themselves. Cambodian exports reached 14.04 billion dollars between January and May 2026, up 19% compared to 11.8 billion dollars recorded during the same period the previous year, according to data published on June 10 by the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE). This trajectory confirms the momentum observed since the beginning of the year: in the first two months of 2026 alone, exports had already increased by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching 5.23 billion dollars.

Washington, an unshakable pillar

The geographic structure of trade flows remains highly concentrated. The United States continues to be the Kingdom’s primary export destination, absorbing 5.73 billion dollars of Cambodian goods, or more than 40% of total exports. Vietnam ranks second with 2.32 billion dollars, followed by China (753 million), Japan (760 million), and Canada (498 million).

This dependence on the U.S. market is both the main driver of growth and a structural vulnerability in a context of persistent global trade tensions. It contrasts with Phnom Penh’s stated ambition to diversify its trade partners through an active policy of bilateral agreements.

Trade diplomacy is paying off

Thong Mengdavid, Deputy Director of the China-ASEAN Studies Center at the Cambodian University of Science and Technology, attributes this momentum to Cambodia’s growing integration into international markets, enabled by agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and bilateral free trade agreements with China, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates.

Penn Sovicheat, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, has described these mechanisms as “catalysts for sustainable export growth,” due to the preferential tariffs they offer to products labeled “Made in Cambodia.”

Beyond these agreements, the economist highlights the gradual diversification of export offerings, long dominated by the textile sector, toward agricultural products and higher value-added industries. This shift is reflected in sectoral data: rubber exports surged by 66% in January 2026, and cashew nuts surpassed the one-billion-dollar mark for the first time in 2025, indicating an upgrading that remains nascent but real.

An influx of foreign direct investment

This trade dynamism is supported by a rapidly growing base of foreign investment. Foreign direct investment reached 5.1 billion dollars in 2025, contributing to the creation of approximately 400,000 formal jobs. These flows, largely directed toward export-oriented manufacturing, directly enhance the country’s production capacity and partly explain the strength of customs figures.

The World Bank validates, but nuances

The World Bank’s June 2026 economic update, titled Navigating Shocks, describes Cambodia’s economy as resilient in the face of simultaneous shocks and projects real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2026, followed by a rebound to 4.9% in 2027. These forecasts are below pre-crisis performance—the country recorded 4.8% growth in 2025—but demonstrate a stronger absorption capacity than many regional peers.

However, the World Bank identifies several vulnerabilities. Inflation rose to 5.8% in April 2026, disproportionately affecting low-income households. The institution estimates that a 10% increase in fuel prices would be enough to raise the poverty rate by 1.4 percentage points. These pressures are compounded by a contraction in remittances following the return of nearly one million migrant workers from Thailand, as well as a prolonged downturn in the real estate market.

Rising imports, a sign of an active economy

Cambodian imports totaled 16.03 billion dollars from January to May 2026, up 18.9% year-on-year. This trade deficit reflects the country’s structural dependence on industrial inputs and energy products, but also signals the vitality of an economy whose productive capacity continues to strengthen.

The remaining question is whether the rise of agricultural and manufacturing exports will ultimately be sufficient to rebalance this trade balance—a challenge that Phnom Penh authorities have placed at the core of their pentagonal development strategy.